Since January’s U.S. retail sales were lower than economists’ estimates, some pundits have suggested America’s streak of bad winter weather is to blame. But Minnesota CFA Society member John Boylan is skeptical.
On his CFA chapter’s blog, he posits that weather events in the northeast—near New York, the media capital of the world—are skewing people’s perceptions just how bad the weather has been. And media are falling prey to confirmation bias, looking for ways to connect the bad weather and the poor retail results, he argues.
The market should already have priced in bad weather, he argues, considering snowstorms are a typical part of northeastern American winter. He adds that Internet sales, which don’t depend on the weather, were also down.
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