In the U.S., holiday spending is expected to be strong due to solid job growth, 2.5% average wage gains and low inflation, according to CIBC World Market economist Avery Shenfeld’s most recent report.
The story for Canadian retailers may be a bit less rosy, he notes. “Notwithstanding a weak September, Canadians were reasonably active in the third quarter; in real terms, retail volumes rose at an annualized 2.8% from the prior quarter. But the four-quarter trend wasn’t nearly as impressive, at only 1.3% in volume terms, and [that’s] perhaps more indicative of what Q4 will look like.”
The good news, says Shenfeld, is “mild weather for much of Canada through November could result in a rush to buy winter coats and snow tires in December. Light home-heating bills also leave a bit more shopping power.” Read more.