Your clients might find it tough to stick to their cash-flow plans in the coming months. That’s because prices could be on the rise.

Read: Your guide to inflation-proofing clients’ lives

In fact, clients might already find themselves doing double takes at the grocer’s till. If so, they’re not the only ones taking note of higher prices.

“My daily coffee just went up a nickel, or 2.6%,” says BMO chief economist Douglas Porter in a weekly economics report.

He says inflation is all around us, except in official statistics: total annual inflation cooled a bit last month in Canada and the U.S.

Read: What muted inflation for October means

Despite the dip, he expects higher inflation next year. That’s because “wages have suddenly shown some spark in Canada as conditions in the oil patch have stabilized and the job market elsewhere tightens.”

Further, minimum wage hikes in some provinces and less drag on import prices from the Canadian dollar will put upward pressure on prices.

Read: Poloz explains temporary drag on inflation

Certainly, the longer-term trend indicates firming.

In the U.S. the six-month change in core CPI inflation was 1.8%, showing steady acceleration since July’s 0.9% reading, notes Michael Gregory, deputy chief economist at BMO, in the report.

“What also is encouraging is that the acceleration has been broad-based,” he says. “This raises the likelihood that core inflation can return to the 2% range early next year, particularly since the labour market has tightened further and the output gap has closed.”

A reading of 2% is also expected for Canada next year, which would be up from 1.5% in 2017, says Porter, who describes inflation as “stable,” in a report on CPI. Along with some steady price increases, that means time is on the Bank of Canada’s side.

“We continue to expect the [central] bank to wait until at least the March meeting before hiking next,” says Porter.

Read: Interest rates likely on hold until April: CIBC

Read the full weekly and inflation reports.

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Denis Aubrey

Unfortunately, the Bank of Canada is getting statistical information that is about six months behind. Inflation in reality has jumped 20 – 30% in some cases, when it comes to food. Transportation remains in the 1- 2% range. Housing & other accomodation issues are up 12%, and fuel has just increased from $1.19ltr. to $1.35.9 a ltr. Dining out costs have also risen dramatically. A glass of nice wine has gone from $8.00 a glass to $15.00. We need an increase to mediate this upward trend.

Monday, Nov 20, 2017 at 1:06 pm Reply