Quebec’s economic outlook is improving, says a new outlook report by the Conference Board of Canada.
“The declining dollar and a stronger U.S. economy will push Quebec’s exports of goods and services to a new high in 2015,” says Marie-Christine Bernard, associate director of Provincial Forecast. “[That] will help drive Quebec’s economic performance this year, allowing real GDP growth to reach 2.4%, up from 1.5% last year.”
Net exports will contribute to real GDP growth this year, with exports growing by 3.6%. That’s the fastest pace seen since 2000, and that will trigger a turnaround for business investment in the machinery and equipment sector specifically.
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Employment in the province is poised to rise this year by 0.8%. Along with lower oil prices, that will provide a boost to households’ real purchasing power—household spending is expected to increase by 2.1% in 2015.
Still, federal and provincial government revenues will feel the squeeze from reduced nominal GDP growth. As such, the goal will be to hold overall program spending increases to just over 0.8% in 2015-2016, down from 2.4% for the 2014-2015 fiscal year.
The downturn in oil producing provinces is expected to be relatively short-lived, as prices are expected to rise gradually throughout this year and 2016.