Don’t expect many surprises from the Federal Reserve’s rate-setting committee this week, says CIBC economist Avery Shenfeld.
The Fed’s Open Market Committee meets Oct. 28 and 29.
Investors don’t expect the Fed to announce a rate hike, and the assumption that rates won’t climb through much of 2015 has been priced in the market, says Shenfeld.
The market has assumed the Fed is taking a dovish position, says Shenfeld, despite indications the economy is recovering. U.S. payroll figures, as well as the unemployment number and GDP growth are all healthy, he says. In fact U.S. GDP is expected to grow 3% in the third quarter.
“Labour markets still have slack, but in pointing that out, the Fed will have to admit that the trend is firmly in the right direction,” Shenfeld writes in a research note.
In the Fed’s next statement, investors will be looking for signs of when the Fed expects to increase rates.
Currently, it’s indicated it plans to wait for a “considerable period,” wording, Shenfeld says, could mean as early as March 2015, and extends indefinitely. If that wording changes or disappears, that means the Fed could be thinking of altering its plans.