If economies were sports teams, there would be a roaring crowd in the U.S. cheering section, says CIBC economist Avery Shenfeld in a report that focuses on the trading week ahead.
Recent “payrolls data [was] merely the latest evidence that America’s team is marching down the field,” he adds, “while other global teams are nursing their wounds…U.S. exports have [also] been doing fairly well…In real terms, goods exports climbed nearly 1% in August, and are up a respectable 5.2% from a year ago.”
Read: Tap U.S. economic growth
As a result, “Canada and Mexico can’t do too badly, given their trade ties to the U.S. market.”
Problem is, Europe and Asia are falling behind. In the report, Shenfeld predicts, “If Europe can’t restart its engines, [if] Japan slumps into recession, and [if] China and other emerging markets disappoint, there [could] be at least some blowback on the U.S. economy.
“Not only directly through reduced demand, but [also] indirectly, as the resulting…climb in the U.S. [dollar] would cut into America’s ability to compete for market share.”
Further, “real exports have contributed about a half-percent to U.S. GDP growth in the last four quarters, and if that [activity] dries up, it could be the difference between continuing the path to full employment or stalling out at the existing level of slack.”
As for Canada, recent trade numbers have indicated “an implausible drop in energy exports,” he notes. “[But]…a weaker Canadian dollar should position the country for better news on its trade front, and the resulting job gains will [benefit] households.”
However, we “need some help from overseas to support commodity prices at levels that will sustain profits and capital spending.”
For more on Canada, the U.S. and the trading week ahead, read the full report.
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