As equities wobbled this week amid intensified U.S.-China trade conflict, “the corporate credit market was relatively calm,” says a report from Moody’s Analytics published Thursday.
Compared to the CBOE Volatility Index’s (VIX) dramatic jump earlier this week, the widening of the high-yield bond spread was moderate, the report said, as was the spread of JPMorgan’s emerging market country bond index.
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“Apparently, the corporate credit market does not yet expect the latest bout of trade frictions to prompt a widespread contraction of core profits capable of significantly worsening the default outlook,” the report said.
The high-yield bond market was much calmer during last year’s bouts of market volatility in February and December, Moody’s said, making it a better predictor than the VIX of financial market performance for the three months that followed.
Yields on the 10-year U.S. Treasury, the 10-year Canadian government bond and the German 10-year government bond have all declined this week.