The S&P had a solid 1.9% gain in July — “the best monthly performance since February,” notes Carl Campus, economist at BMO Capital Markets, in a weekly equity report. He says U.S. equity markets are recently strong thanks to solid U.S. jobs data and positive corporate earnings results.
Most S&P companies beat top-line sales estimates in Q2, says Avery Shenfeld, managing director and chief economist at CIBC Capital Markets, in a weekly economics report
“But it’s not as if they’ve been shooting the lights out on revenues,” he says. “The data now in the books, with estimates for the remainder, have sales up a moderate 5.2%” year over year.
Since the S&P has a lot of weight in globally active businesses, he says, buying what’s “un-American” on the index might now be a good play for two reasons.
Firstly, Shenfeld says companies “active in continental Europe will benefit from an output gap that leaves more elbow room for non-inflationary growth, while emerging markets benefit from faster longer-term trend growth.”
Secondly, the weakening U.S. dollar will boost overseas earnings in dollar terms for international players. However, those earnings “won’t show up in year-on-year results just yet,” he says, “because the USD is only flat versus year-ago levels.”