The unemployment rate fell to another record low in April even as the pace of job creation slowed, suggesting a tightening of the labour market.
Statistics Canada said Friday the jobless rate fell 5.2% for April as the economy added 15,300 jobs.
That’s down slightly compared with the previous record low unemployment rate of 5.3% set in March when 72,500 jobs were added.
“All of these indicators that we look at all tell the same story, and that is a story of a shrinking labour pool and an overheated labour market,” said Tu Nguyen, economist with accounting and consultancy firm RSM Canada.
Nguyen pointed to the record low unemployment rate of 4.3% for core-aged workers aged 25 to 54 and the lowest rate of involuntary part-time employment on record at 15.7% as indicators of how tight the job market has become.
Statistics Canada also said the adjusted unemployment rate — which includes people who wanted a job, but did not look for one — was 7.2% in April, below the pre-pandemic level of 7.4%.
Bank of Montreal chief economist Douglas Porter said the moderate gain in employment is a sign of much more normal conditions, but also one where the supply of new workers may be beginning to be the binding constraint on growth.
“For the Bank of Canada, this will do nothing to dissuade them from their tightening path, not with headline inflation aiming at 7%,” he wrote in a note to clients.
Inflation in March reached 6.7%, and the Bank of Canada has said it expects inflation to average almost 6% in the first half of the year. The central bank has indicated additional interest rate hikes are on their way in the coming months.
“The one item of news here that may help contain just how much the Bank ultimately needs to hike is the ongoing calmness of wages,” Porter said.
Average hourly wages were up 3.3% year over year in April compared with a year-over-year gain of 3.4% in March.
Statistics Canada did note that the proportion of those making less than $20 per hour in April made up 25.9% of all employees, down from 35.5% in April 2019. Meanwhile, employees earning $40 or more per hour represented 24.5% of employees, up from 18% three years earlier.
The jobless rate in April fell to its lowest point since at least 1976, which is as far back as comparable data goes, as the number of jobs in professional, scientific and technical services rose by 15,000 in April and the public administration category gained 17,000.
The number of people working in retail trade fell by 22,000 in April and those working in construction dropped by 21,000.
However, the effects of the pandemic continued to be felt in the economy as the total hours worked in April fell 1.9% compared with March, due in part to illness-related absences from work. A blizzard in Manitoba also affected the hours worked in that province.
Looking ahead, Nguyen said she expects the job market to remain tight through the summer as business and consumer demand remain strong and workers can’t materialize out of thin air.
“Businesses and consumers still have quite a lot of savings from the pandemic and they are still going out purchasing goods and services and we don’t have a whole lot of additional supply to the labour market,” she said.
However, Nguyen said she’s watching the proportion of long-term unemployed among the jobless.
Long-term unemployment accounted for 20.6% of total unemployment in April compared with 15.6% in February 2020, before the pandemic.
Nguyen said it points to an issue of a mismatch between the skills of people who have been unemployed for a long time and an overheated labour market that’s looking for workers
“Maybe these workers feel like they’re being left behind because wherever you look now, you see reports about a heated labour market and yet they can’t seem to find jobs,” she said.