Canadian home sales post second-best January, average price hits new record

Home sales fell in January from a year earlier, but still posted their second-best showing for the month as the average price climbed to a new record, the Canadian Real Estate Association said Tuesday.

Sales totalled 33,166 last month, down 10.7% from 37,137 in January 2021.

On a seasonally adjusted basis, home sales for January amounted to 55,043, up by 1% from 54,482 in December.

“The reality is that people weren’t ready to sell and there was very little supply on the market,” said Davelle Morrison, a Toronto broker with Bosley Real Estate Ltd.

“Now, I have three listings signed up for the end of February or beginning of March, but for those people January was just a little bit too early for them.”

Realtors and economists attributed the second-best showing to high demand for homes from millennials anxious to buy their first property before prices climb any further, newcomers entering the country after immigration ground to a halt during the pandemic and investors keen to take advantage of lower interest rates.

“It’s tough for supply to keep up with such a supercharged demand backdrop,” said Rishi Sondhi, an economist with TD Economics, in a note to investors.

His remarks came as CREA noted a lack of new listings, which fell 11% to 61,602 in January from 69,196 in December.

But Robert Kavcic, senior economist at BMO Capital Markets, argued that the past year has seen new listings become available at a normal rate and the boom in demand is what’s really making the market balance and inventory look “extraordinarily tight.”

“When listings are being vaporized in days by multiple offers, it’s a demand issue,” he wrote in a note to investors.

“Expectations of price growth could even be holding back listings as well as boosting demand.”

Several real estate boards are predicting smaller but continued year-over-year price increases in 2022 as extremely low interest rates experienced during the Covid-19 pandemic are poised for a hike.

“Affordability is clearly worsening quickly, which should make it tougher for first-time homebuyers to jump into the market,” said Sondhi.

The market has tipped in favour of sellers. CREA found last month a record 85% of local markets were seller’s markets, while it categorized 15% of other regions as “balanced.”

Those conditions combined with the lack of new listings pushed prices up once again.

The national average home price was a record $748,450 in January, up 21% from $618,587 a year earlier.

Excluding Greater Vancouver and the Greater Toronto, two of Canada’s most active and expensive housing markets, cuts almost $160,000 from the national average price, CREA said.

The seasonally-adjusted average home price in both regions was more than $1.2 million and rose 1.8% in Greater Vancouver and 5.7% in Greater Toronto from December.

“People can’t afford it in the GTA,” said Morrison, noting that she’s seen people head to New Brunswick or even the outskirts of the GTA, where housing is cheaper.

“As the expression goes, they’re going to drive until they buy.”

Claire Fan, an economist with RBC Economics, noted price gains were led by major markets like Toronto and Montreal, which both saw prices rise by 3.5% from December.

“Growth has been slower in the Prairie provinces, but even there the majority of markets have sellers in the driver’s seat,” she wrote in a note to investors.

But Fan has some hope that the market will become less frenzied.

She believes deteriorating affordability, rising borrowing costs and increasing housing supply will gradually cool demand and restore some balance.

Kavcic agreed.

“We have a fundamentally-strong housing market that has been allowed to overheat by too-loose policy,” he wrote.

“It’s going to take higher interest rates to alter the market psychology, cool excess demand and price growth. That day is fast approaching.”