Consumer prices slipped 0.1% last month, pulled down by sharply lower gas prices and cheaper air fares, used cars and mobile phone plans.
The U.S. consumer price index rose just 1.9% in December from a year earlier, the country’s Labor Department said Friday, the first time it has fallen below 2% since August 2017.
Excluding the volatile energy and food categories, core prices rose 0.2% for the third month in a row. They rose 2.2% from a year ago for the second straight month. That year-over-year figure indicates resilience, said Derek Holt, vice-president and head of capital markets economics at Scotiabank, in a report. “Outside of the energy influences, there was fair breadth to the price gains,” he said, citing gains in components such as housing and services.
Still, the price figures suggest that the healthy economy is not yet creating widespread inflation pressures. That gives the Federal Reserve more leeway in deciding whether to raise short-term interest rates. Fed Chair Jerome Powell has said the Fed can be “patient” regarding rate hikes this year.
Charles Evans, president of the Fed’s Chicago regional bank, said Wednesday that mild inflation data allows the Fed to “wait and carefully take stock of the incoming data and other developments” before deciding on future rate hikes.
Fed policymakers lifted short-term rates four times last year and have forecast two more hikes this year. Yet investors and some analysts think that slower U.S.and global growth this year, combined with low inflation, will keep the Fed from raising rates at all.
In a report, CIBC economist Katherine Judge forecast that the Fed would raise rates only once, likely in the second quarter. “With inflation right where the Fed wants it to be, policymakers will be able to take a breather from raising rates in Q1 as they assess the extent of the imminent slowdown in growth indicators,” she said.
Markets weren’t much affected by today’s data.
Gas prices plunged 7.5% in December, the most in almost three years. They have since fallen further: gas prices averaged $2.24 a gallon nationwide on Friday, according to AAA, down from $2.41 a month ago. That reflects a steep drop in oil prices, which have tumbled partly over fears of weakness in the global economy.
Food costs rose 0.4% last month, the biggest increase in four-and-a-half years. Fruit and vegetable prices jumped 1.7%, while the cost of eating out rose 0.4%.
The cost of many goods was unchanged in December: prices for clothes, shoes, and new cars were flat.