Following November data showing a dip in GDP, Canadian jobs and housing numbers to be released in the coming week are expected to be subdued.
For the month of January, Canada’s labour force survey drops on Friday. In a weekly report, National Bank says it expects that 5,000 jobs were added, after 144,600 were created in the previous three months, and that the employment rate could gain a tick to 5.7%.
CIBC says in a weekly report that continued job declines in Alberta are likely to partially offset growth in other regions. A modest gain in employment would align with the bank’s outlook for the first quarter of 2019 to be “another soft period for the Canadian economy, particularly given the drag from mandated production cuts in the oil patch,” the report says.
Housing starts will also be released on Friday, with National Bank expecting January’s figures to total 215,000 (seasonally adjusted and annualized), assuming single homes and multi-units reflect the growing number of permits granted in these categories in recent months. The previous month’s number was 213,400.
CIBC expects a pullback in starts to 202,000, which it describes as “about the middle of the range” of recent trends. “Homebuilding has been facing stiff headwinds from both higher interest rates and tighter mortgage rules recently,” the CIBC report says.
In the U.S., November trade balance numbers will be released, as well as factory orders and consumer credit for December.
Globally, the Bank of England will meet on Thursday to discuss monetary policy and vote on the bank rate, and eurozone data will be released for manufacturing and retail sales for January and December, respectively. Japan will release January’s manufacturing data.