If you were hoping for a slow news cycle next week, you’re out of luck.
In both Canada and the U.S., a slew of earnings and economic data will be released, and NAFTA negotiations continue, says Derek Holt, vice-president and head of Capital Markets Economics at Scotiabank, in his latest week ahead report.
By Monday, both countries might also be reeling from a U.S. government shutdown. So far, says Holt, “It appears that the Democrats have enough votes to block a funding bill that would extend funding to Feb. 16.” As a result, he said “there is no clarity on whether a shutdown will be averted” prior to the fast-approaching midnight deadline.
If the government were to shut down, that would be the first time it’s happened since 2013, reports The Associated Press. That year, tea party Republicans sought to use a must-pass funding bill to try to force then-President Barack Obama into delaying implementation of his marquee health care law.
In Canada, markets will be “trading the aftermath of the Bank of Canada’s [Jan. 17] decision” to hike its target for the overnight rate to 1.25%; the bank rate is correspondingly 1.50%, and the deposit rate is 1%. Holt predicts CPI will slip back below the BoC’s 2% target, but says, “[…] the key will be what happens to core inflation anyway, not least because the BoC is looking through an expected temporary soft-patch in headline CPI.”
Europe, Asia and Latin America
Aside from the potential impact of NAFTA talks, all will be quiet on the Latin American front, “with little to nothing material on the domestic calendars,” says Holt.
Europe is a different story. Along with “top-shelf data risk in the Eurozone and U.K.,” says Holt, the ECB makes an announcement on Thursday. Holt predicts the ECB will leave rates unchanged and remain dovish, despite the market’s expectation that the central bank could “begin to provide early guidance about shutting down bond purchases” on the back of strengthening economic data.
Weak inflation and the strength of the euro are complicating factors for the ECB, says Holt.
In Asia, the biggest news will be the Bank of Japan’s policy decision. Holt expects “a fairly dovish BoJ outcome,” but he forecasts its decision will be scrutinized “for evidence of where the balance lies between early exit talk versus possibl[e] accelerated tactical bond purchases.”