The Bank of Canada will make headlines next week at its second 2018 meeting and policy announcement, and National Bank thinks the BoC will hold rates.
In its week ahead report, National Bank says boons for growth have been “looser fiscal policy south of the border” and the fact that “global economic expansion remains on track.”
Domestically, core inflation has been trending up, but “both the Canadian dollar and oil prices (Western Canada Select) are weaker than at the [BoC’s] January rate announcement,” the report says.
National Bank’s call is the BoC will stand pat on interest rates on Wednesday. It forecasts the central bank will underline that “continued monetary policy accommodation is still needed to keep the economy operating close to potential and inflation on target.”
The other item on Canada’s agenda for next week is February’s labour force survey. National Bank expects “the pace of job creation to revert to a less volatile path,” after some volatility in recent months.
- Why you shouldn’t overreact to January’s labour market slump
- Canada’s underlying inflation rate heating up
U.S. and global news
In the U.S., watch for the publication of non-farm payrolls for February as well as jobs data.
“We’ll also get January’s data on international trade, consumer credit and wholesale trade sales,” says National Bank. And the U.S. Fed’s latest Beige Book will be issued.
Internationally, the European Central Bank will make a rate announcement on Thursday following its monetary policy meeting. Also look for data coming out of China, and for the results of Italy’s March 4 general election.