If you’re wondering which economic headlines to watch over the coming week, Moody’s Analytics’ latest weekly market outlook has you covered.
Here’s a rundown of what to expect.
In the U.S.
Fiscal and monetary policy will be the focus south of the border, says Moody’s.
Talks of “a potential government shutdown are intensifying,” the report says, and the Federal Reserve is meeting Dec. 12 and 13. Moody’s forecasts a hike of 25 basis points to a target range of 1.25% to 1.5%. On Friday, that call was mirrored by the CME Group’s FedWatch Tool, which said there was a 90% probability of a hike.
The main events will be data from both the U.K. and eurozone. Moody’s will be looking at industrial production, inflation and unemployment numbers, in particular.
Eurozone countries to watch include Germany, Spain, France and Italy. German exports dropped in October for the second straight month while imports grew, narrowing the trade surplus, according to numbers released Friday.
Meanwhile, in the U.K., the data “will likely make the Bank of England monetary policy committee’s trade-off even harder, as they are expected to show that inflation jumped further over the month but that wage growth remained subdued,” says Moody’s.
In China, “November activity data should show improvement from the holiday-induced slowdown in October,” says Moody’s, which calls for a retail-sales rebound and manufacturing growth.
China reported strong growth Friday in both exports and imports for November. Figures posted on the customs department website show exports expanded 12.3% to $217.4 billion in November over a year earlier—that’s nearly double the 6.9% pace recorded in October.
In Japan, the central bank “will be closely watching the December quarter Tankan Survey,” Moody’s says. That survey measures the mood of the region’s largest manufacturers. Japan’s economy gained momentum, expanding at a 2.5% annual pace in July-September, according to the government.
Other countries to watch are India, where “all isn’t well,” says Moody’s, as well as Australia and South Korea.
Read the full weekly report.