It’s been a great year for the loonie.
In fact, “over the past six months, the C$ has been the best performing major currency,” note CIBC economists Andrew Grantham and Royce Mendes in a weekly economics report.
The loonie’s strength coincides with Canada’s hot GDP streak. However, Canada’s growth is slowing, while that of other economies is accelerating, say Grantham and Mendes.
That means potential losses for the loonie.
“A combination of slowing growth in Canada and improved prospects in other countries sees us expecting CAD to be an underperformer in the coming six months,” they say.
Canada’s annualized GDP is 3.1%. Who’s catching up?
Europe, perhaps surprisingly, with 2.5% annualized GDP growth.
Referring to Europe, a BlackRock report says, “We see sustained above-trend economic expansion and a steady earnings outlook supporting cyclicals.” Further, “This year’s euro strength is still playing out in company results, but it should become less of a drag.”
Read: Where to find growth now
Headwinds for U.S. dollar
Next in GDP results is the U.S. (2.3%).
Some commentators expect increased U.S. growth if tax reforms go through. But the reforms might not be “the game-changers some are banking on,” say Grantham and Mendes.
For example, a material change in tax collection won’t occur until 2019, and is tilted toward high-income earners, who have a lower propensity to spend.
Add in headwinds from tighter monetary policy globally and the large U.S. current account deficit, and “the tax bill isn’t likely to turn the tide on dollar weakness next year.”