There are three things to watch in Canada for the week ahead, a National Bank report says: January’s labour force survey, housing starts, and December’s merchandise trade balance.
National Bank said in a research note that it expects a strong jobs report on Feb. 9, despite Canada’s unemployment rate already sitting at a historic low of 5.8%.
That would “normally call for a negative print in January, but we believe that the party is not over yet,” the bank says. “Indeed, we are calling for a 50K increase in the first month of the year, a development that would bring the unemployment rate down two ticks to 5.6%.”
The bank is less optimistic about housing starts, which it says will decline. It also calls for the trade deficit to widen to $2.7 billion.
In the U.S, it will be a light week, says National Bank, with the main economic news items being December data on international trade, wholesale trade sales and consumer credit.