‘Party is not over yet’ for Canada’s unemployment rate: report

There are three things to watch in Canada for the week ahead, a National Bank report says: January’s labour force survey, housing starts, and December’s merchandise trade balance.

National Bank said in a research note that it expects a strong jobs report on Feb. 9, despite Canada’s unemployment rate already sitting at a historic low of 5.8%.

Read: Canadian job market even better than it looks: CIBC

That would “normally call for a negative print in January, but we believe that the party is not over yet,” the bank says. “Indeed, we are calling for a 50K increase in the first month of the year, a development that would bring the unemployment rate down two ticks to 5.6%.”

The bank is less optimistic about housing starts, which it says will decline. It also calls for the trade deficit to widen to $2.7 billion.

Read: How mortgage rules will impact market

In the U.S, it will be a light week, says National Bank, with the main economic news items being December data on international trade, wholesale trade sales and consumer credit.

Read the full report.

Staff

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