Government measures to support economic growth that were adopted in response to pandemic-driven disruption are now in retreat, according to a new report from Fitch Ratings.
The rating agency reported that its combined credit metric for the U.S., China and Europe “turned sharply negative” in the second quarter.
Ordinarily, this would signal a downturn in economic conditions.
However, Fitch said the apparent decline in credit conditions is likely due to lending returning to more normal conditions amid declining government supports.
“This largely reflects a normalization in credit conditions after exceptional policy support boosted credit flows last year, but nevertheless signals how macro policy support for global growth is now fading fast,” said Robert Sierra, a director in Fitch’s economics team.
In the U.S. as restrictions are eased and the economy reopens, policy supports can be withdrawn without undermining the economic recovery, Fitch said.
In China there are signs of a deteriorating economic outlook, it noted.
“We expect the Chinese authorities to respond with policy measures that will see credit growth start to pick up again before year-end,” the report said.