Investors should approach 2017 with caution, but it’s not all doom and gloom.
Chief economists from the Big 5 banks gave their 2017 outlooks at the Economic Club’s annual forecast breakfast in Toronto, which was moderated by market expert Frances Horodelski. The packed house heard from Avery Shenfeld, CIBC World Markets; Craig Wright, RBC Royal Bank; Derek Burleton, TD Bank Group; Douglas Porter, BMO Financial Group and Jean-Francois Perrault, Scotiabank.
Read: In U.S., expect mortgage rates, home sales and prices to rise
For this year, they predict:
- oil between US$55 and US$58 (take your energy gains now)
- the loonie between US$0.72 and US$0.74, as well as a decoupling between oil prices and the CAD
- mild effects, if any, from fiscal stimulus in the U.S., since that economy is near capacity
- cooler housing markets in Canada, everywhere except Toronto (Porter says only direct intervention can cool Toronto’s market)
- slower consumer spending, with max 2% real growth
- no action from the Bank of Canada for the next 18 months