TSX well positioned as energy rises, gold resets

The TSX’s higher weighting in materials and energy makes it well positioned to outperform the U.S., says Tudor Padure, portfolio manager, CIBC Global Asset Management. That’s because both materials and energy have outperformed in previous periods of oil-driven inflation, like in the 1970s.

“One key difference between today and the 1970s that may help mitigate the impact is the significantly lower oil intensity of the economy,” he said in an April 15 interview. “Industry innovation improving efficiency, and the adoption of alternative energy sources have helped make the economy — including consumers — less vulnerable to oil price shocks.”

For instance, U.S. gasoline spending has fallen from about 12% of disposable income in the 1970s to roughly 4% in 2025, he said.

Listen to the full conversation on the Advisor To Go podcast, powered by CIBC Global Asset Management.

Still, energy stocks have continued to outperform since the beginning of the U.S.-Iran conflict, Padure said. Canadian oil is actually selling closer to global prices.

“This is a very positive development for Canadian producers, as we believe a geopolitical premium is likely to persist even after the conflict subsides.”

Meanwhile, gold declined slightly since the beginning of the conflict, he said. But because markets had already priced it in, gold is still up about 11% overall, due to central bank buying, de-dollarization, and fiscal and inflationary tailwinds.

After falling 28% since the beginning of March, gold miners have since recovered, and are down about 12% now, he said.

Higher oil prices are part of the reason why miners have underperformed, Padure said. For every 10% rise in oil prices, gold miners’ costs increase by about 1% to 2%. So if oil prices stay up 77% as of March 31, miners’ costs could rise by as much as 16%.

So Padure is constructive on gold equities and sees the recent pullback as a buying opportunity, supported by strong balance sheets and shareholder returns.

Private credit update

There was renewed pressure in private credit in March, as several major asset managers, including Blackstone, BlackRock, Cliffwater, Apollo and Ares, limited redemptions amid concerns over AI-linked software exposure and stretched valuations. This contributed to a 16% year-to-date decline in the VanEck Alternative Asset Manager ETF, with some names down over 30%, Padure said.

Despite this setback, Padure said both Brookfield Corporation and Brookfield Asset Management are better insulated due to their focus on real assets like infrastructure, real estate, and renewables, with minimal software exposure at just 1% to 2%.

Further, Brookfield Asset Management’s recent launch of its $10-billion AI fund, Brookfield Artificial Intelligence Infrastructure Fund, is a key differentiator, he said. “On a fundamental basis, the company is better positioned to capture AI-related capital deployment, and [we] expect this focus to lead to a record fundraising year in 2026.”

This article is part of the Advisor To Go program, sponsored by CIBC Global Asset Management. The article was written without input from the sponsor.