The main event this week will be the Bank of Canada’s Wednesday policy meeting. Reports from last week suggested a rate hike may be in the cards despite the market’s expectation for an October move.

Read: GDP strength could lead to BoC September hike

It’s possible that the BoC’s policy will “turn more hawkish,” says a weekly watch note from National Bank Financial Economics. It adds, “There are several factors pointing in the direction of further tightening, [such as] notably better than expected first half GDP growth and a stellar labour market. Moreover, looking ahead, provincial fiscal stimulus in B.C. and pre-election spending sprees in Ontario and Quebec should generate tailwinds for the Canadian economy.”

But there are uncertainties that could hold the BoC off, says NBF. Those include still-low inflation, an appreciating loonie and even the looming U.S. debt ceiling showdown.

The economic calendar is light in the U.S. but some data will be released, as will “the latest iteration of the Fed’s Beige Book” on Wednesday.

On the global front, look for European Central bank meeting results and data from China and Japan.


Why central banks should lose the loose money

Portfolio prospects as central banks tighten