Provincial housing markets may diverge, says CMHC

Housing markets will remain stable going into 2016, but starts may moderate across Canada, finds CMHC’s Q2 2015 Housing Market Outlook.

There are a number of trends that may affect markets across the country, adds the survey. For one, “lower oil prices are contributing to disparities between provincial housing markets,” says Bob Dugan, chief economist for CMHC.

He expects “a slowdown in housing starts and resale transactions in oil-producing provinces such as Alberta, [but those] will be partly offset by increased housing market activity in provinces such as Ontario and B.C., which [will] benefit from […] continued low mortgage rates,” along with low oil prices and a dipping loonie.

Read: Loonie still has room to fall: report

Still, “since the inventory of completed and unabsorbed units remains above the historical average, we expect the pace of new home construction to moderate over the next couple of years,” says Dugan.

On an annual basis, housing starts are expected to range between 166,540 and 188,580 units in 2015, with a point forecast of 181,618 units. For 2016, housing starts are forecast to range from 162,840 units to 190,830 units, with a point forecast of 181,800 units.

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