Get ready for a U.S. tax policy showdown, as well as a Canadian inflation report card, says Scotiabank’s Derek Holt in his latest week ahead report.
Holt, who’s vice-president and head of capital markets economics for Scotiabank, offers the following tips and commentary in his global recap of what’s to come in the near term.
Inflation, housing data and more earnings for Canada. Next Friday will see the release of another inflation report and, as Holt writes, “[…] most of the week’s focus in terms of the Canadian currency and rates markets will be upon whether continued progress on inflation is achieved.” He expects inflation to ease to 1.3% year over year, compared to 1.6% in October, reinforcing “near-term dovishness at least from a headline perspective, with the usual uncertainty regarding core inflation.”
Housing data “will be of more interest to housing observers than to markets,” he says, “given markets never trade off of existing home sales […] or the Teranet repeat-sales house price yardstick for the same month, also released on Wednesday.”
Other events of note for the Canadian markets: bond markets are closed on Monday in honour of Remembrance Day, and Bank of Canada senior deputy governor Carolyn Wilkins will give a speech on Wednesday about monetary policy uncertainty.
Tax kerfuffle will overshadow data releases in U.S. Confrontation over what Holt calls “duelling tax proposals” is in the cards for next week, alongside “some key data releases that are expected to be on the softer side, Fed-speak and retail-focused earnings.” Holt forecasts elevated market risk.
Avery Shenfeld, managing director and chief economist for CIBC Capital Markets, recommends in his weekly report that investors and economists wait to assess the tax proposals. He writes, “There will be a point at which investors and economists need to get into the weeds of the reforms, but we’re going to have to wait to see plan C, or plan D, before it’s worth the bother.”
He expects U.S. tax reform to be more of a 2019 story, meaning there should be “no need, then, to rush to bring in major changes to our existing U.S. growth forecast, or Fed projections, for the coming year.”
Central bank action in Latin America, and U.S. spillover. Says Holt: “Chile’s central bank and Colombia’s economy may be the key focus in terms of local [Latin American] market developments, but the risk of spillover effects from U.S. political developments is probably going to be the more dominant consideration over the coming week.”
Inflation, jobs and economic data from Europe and Asia. Two things to watch in Europe are U.K. inflation and the German economy, says Holt, along with Japanese growth, Australian jobs and “a wave of macro data” from China.
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