The analysis assigns probabilities to each of three possible scenarios:
The West Rides Again – Shifting Gears (60%): The consensus view of the firm is that ample liquidity and the broader growth environment favors the U.S., U.K. and Canada. In contrast, Japan, China and other parts of the West, namely continental Europe, may remain stagnant. The “Shifting Gears” scenario was added this year as those leading economies are picking up speed.
Synchronized Growth – Threading the Needle (25%): The more optimistic outlook offering substantial upside has been reduced in probability relative to last year. “Threading the Needle” reflects the increased challenges faced by the world’s central banks in coordinating their actions in hopes of achieving synchronized growth.
Broken China – Bend But Do Not Break (15%): The least optimistic — and least likely — scenario focuses on the growth-restricting forces that would bend the economies of the Eurozone and China. The likelihood of this scenario is slightly greater than last year because of problems facing these countries.
Click here for the report’s discussion of the investment implications of each scenario.